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Vietnam Electricity Comprehensive Report Q2/2018

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Vietnam Electricity Comprehensive Report Q2/2018



Executive Summary

VIETNAM ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY

China and the United States are the two countries with the highest electricity consumption in the world in 2016. The average increase in electricity price in the world was 1.75% in the period 2011-2015. Since 2005, Asia has officially surpassed Europe and North America to become the world's largest producer of electricity. Power consumption in the world continuously increased in the period 2006-2016e with double growth rate CAGR of 2.64%, since during this period, the global economy has continued to grow strongly.

Currently, EVN still has a monopoly on the segments of regulation, electricity wholesaling, transmission and distribution or retailing. The annually double growth of electricity supply was 10.3% in the period 2010-2017. Accumulated the first 3 months of 2018, the total volume of electricity supply reached xx.xx billion kWh, an increase of 11.2% over the same period in 2017. Electricity transmission is mainly from the North to the Central and to the South. The main sources of electricity are Hydroelectricity, Coal Thermoelectricity and Gas Thermoelectricity, accounting for 93.78% of the total power capacity in the first three months of 2018.

Import proportion of electricity has been gradually stabilizing over the years. The proportion of imported electricity in total electricity supply in the country has remained constantly from 1.3% to 2% in the period 2015-2018. In 2018, imported electricity output is forecast to reach x.xxx billion kWh, accounting for 1.33% of total electricity supply. Vietnam electricity loss has tended downward but remained high in 2017, electricity loss rate was 7.47%, exceeding 0.13% of the year's plan (7.6%), however, it was still in high level.

Vietnam power demand has grown fast in the period from 2001 to 2017 with the estimated average growth of 11.3% per year and is forecast to continuously increase in the next 15 years. Electricity price in Vietnam is quite low compared to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Power generation is the only segment with the participation of corporate outside EVN due to the specific requirements of capital investment. Therefore, the competitive electricity market in Vietnam will also start the first phase of this segment. The growth rate in the period 2017-2020f is forecast to reach 10.7%, in the period 2021-2025f and 2025-2030f would be 9.7% and 8.7%, respectively. Electricity demand is expected to continue growing at 10-11% per year in the coming years.

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

1. Business environment

1.1 Macroeconomic situation

1.2 Legal framework

1.3 Free Trade Agreements

2. Industry overview

2.1 Situation of global electricity industry

2.1.1 Demand and supply for electricity

2.1.2 Development trend of global electricity industry

2.1.3 Price movement

2.1.4 Situation of electricity industry in some Southeast Asia countries

2.2 Situation of Vietnam electricity industry

2.2.1 History of Vietnam electricity industry

2.2.2 Value chain of the industry

2.2.3 Input fuel

2.2.4 Electricity generation

2.2.5 Transmission and distribution

2.2.6 Electricity consumption

2.2.7 Electricity price

2.2.8 Structure of electricity industry

2.3 Issues in energy industries development

2.3.1 Existing

2.3.2 Challenges

2.3.3 Risks

2.3.4 The trend of foreign investment

2.4 Planning and forecasting

2.4.1 Planning

2.4.2 Forecasting

3. Business analysis

3.1 Typical companies of electricity industry

3.2 Business performance indicators

3.3 Financial indicators

3.4 Payment indicators

4. Appendix

4.1 Financial statements

4.2 Total capacity of national installed electricity system

 

List of figures

Figure 1: Monthly CPI fluctuations, 2014-2017

Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2015-2017

Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rates, 2013-2017

Figure 4: FDI attraction by industry, 2017

Figure 5: Contribution to electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012-2017e

Figure 6: World electricity volume, 1985-2016

Figure 7: Structure of world electricity volume, 2016

Figure 8: Non-renewable electricity supply shares of the world, 1973

Figure 9: Non-renewable electricity supply shares of the world, 2015

Figure 10: Global renewable electricity capacity, 2015-2016

Figure 11: The structure of renewable electricity production worldwide, 2016

Figure 12: Renewable electricity capacity * in the world by country, 2016

Figure 13: Average per capita electricity in the world, 1985-2016

Figure 14: World's top largest electricity producing countries, 2015-2016

Figure 15: Contribution structure of world electricity production, 2016

Figure 16: Electricity production volume in some countries, 2006-2016

Figure 17: Electricity consumption by region, 2006-2016

Figure 18: Top 10 most electricity consuming countries in 2016

Figure 19: World electricity exports, 1985-2016e

Figure 20: World electricity consumption prospects by region, 1980-2030f

Figure 21: Proportion of primary energy supply in the world, 1973

Figure 22: Total of primary energy supply in the world, 2015

Figure 23: Electricity price of household, 2016

Figure 24: Average price of electricity in the world, 2016

Figure 25: Top 10 largest countries consuming electricity per capita in the world, 2014

Figure 26: Demand for energy of some countries in Southeast Asia, 1990-2035f

Figure 27: Electricity consumption in ASEAN by sectors 2010-2035f

Figure 28: Situation of primary energy supply, 2010-2015

Figure 29: Domestic energy explotation from 2009 to 2015

Figure 30: Coal reserves by region, 2016f

Figure 31: Market segment of coal consumption, 2016f

Figure 32: Forecast for supply and demand coal from 2015 to 2030

Figure 33: Market segment of natural gas consumption

Figure 34: Rate of selling price of gas for electricity sector by market price, 2014-2015

Figure 35: Potential and characteristics of wind electricity in 3 regions and by wind speed

Figure 36: Total supply of electricity, 2010-2017e

Figure 37: Electricity production of Vietnam and some other countries, 2016

Figure 38: Proportion of electricity generation by supplier, 2016

Figure 39: Structure of electricity production by source of materials, 2012-Q3/2018

Figure 40: Import of electricity, 2010-2017

Figure 41: Import of electricity from China, 2010-2016e

Figure 42: Power loss, 2010-2017e

Figure 43: Rate of power losses in the supply chain, 2010-2016

Figure 44: Maximum load and electricity system availability *, 4/2015-10/2017

Figure 45: Peak load by time between two main seasons, 2016

Figure 46: Commercial electricity, 2012-9M/2017e

Figure 47: Electricity consumption per capita of Vietnam, 2000-2016

Figure 48: Electricity consumption structure, 2017

Figure 49: Elastic electricity factor/GDP, 2010-2017e

Figure 50: Electricity outage, 2012-2017e

Figure 51: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2015-10/2017

Figure 52: Average electricity price, July/2007-December /2017

Figure 53: Price of input material, January/2014-October/2017

Figure 54: VGCM situation, 2012-2017

Figure 55: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source

Figure 56: Average per capita consumption of coal and and CO?

Figure 57: Import of electrical wires and cables, 2011-2018e

Figure 58: Investment capital of power plants

Figure 59: Demand-supply of electricity, 2010-2030f

Figure 60: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016-2030f

Figure 61: Net revenue, 2015-2016

Figure 62: Profit indicator, 2015-2016

Figure 63: Financial cost, 2015-2016

Figure 64: Self-financing rate, 2015-2016

Figure 65: Total asset, 2015-2016

Figure 66: Average days of receivables, 2016

Figure 67: Profit indicators, 2016

Figure 68: Days in inventory, 2016

Figure 69: Solvency, 2015-2016

List of tables

Table 1: Electricity generation in Southeast Asia by energy sources, 1990-2040f

Table 2: Demand for primary energy in Southeast Asia, 1990-2040f

Table 3: Increase in coal price for power generation, 2010-2017

Table 4: Hydroelectricity potential in Vietnam

Table 5: Data on solar radiation in Vietnam

Table 6: Schedule for solar energy development in Vietnam to 2030 with a vision to 2050

Table 7: Wind electricity potential in the provinces of Planning for development of wind electricity, 2020

Table 8: Theoretical potential and technical potential of the tidal electric power

Table 9: Geothermal potential of the regions

Table 10: Compare the advantages and disadvantages of hydroelectricity and thermal electricity

Table 11: Length of transmission grid and total capacity of distribution, 2011-2016

Table 12: Rate of power losses of some countries, 2011-2014

Table 13: Results of reduction of power losses in 2017-Plan for 2018

Table 14: Commercial electricity according to the distribution companies (Million kWh), 2016-2018

Table 15: Electricity supply reliability criteria for 2017-2018

Table 16: Vietnam's getting electricity indicator, 2013-2017

Table 17: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium-sized hydroelectric plants in 2017

Table 18: Average electricity wholesale price of EVN for other electricity corporations in 2016

Table 19: Comparison of electricity industry structure before and after 2008

 

 

 

 

 

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List of figures

 

Figure 1: Monthly CPI fluctuations, 2014-2017

Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2015-2017

Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rates, 2013-2017

Figure 4: FDI attraction by industry, 2017

Figure 5: Contribution to electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012-2017e

Figure 6: World electricity volume, 1985-2016

Figure 7: Structure of world electricity volume, 2016

Figure 8: Non-renewable electricity supply shares of the world, 1973

Figure 9: Non-renewable electricity supply shares of the world, 2015

Figure 10: Global renewable electricity capacity, 2015-2016

Figure 11: The structure of renewable electricity production worldwide, 2016

Figure 12: Renewable electricity capacity * in the world by country, 2016

Figure 13: Average per capita electricity in the world, 1985-2016

Figure 14: World's top largest electricity producing countries, 2015-2016

Figure 15: Contribution structure of world electricity production, 2016

Figure 16: Electricity production volume in some countries, 2006-2016

Figure 17: Electricity consumption by region, 2006-2016

Figure 18: Top 10 most electricity consuming countries in 2016

Figure 19: World electricity exports, 1985-2016e

Figure 20: World electricity consumption prospects by region, 1980-2030f

Figure 21: Proportion of primary energy supply in the world, 1973

Figure 22: Total of primary energy supply in the world, 2015

Figure 23: Electricity price of household, 2016

Figure 24: Average price of electricity in the world, 2016

Figure 25: Top 10 largest countries consuming electricity per capita in the world, 2014

Figure 26: Demand for energy of some countries in Southeast Asia, 1990-2035f

Figure 27: Electricity consumption in ASEAN by sectors 2010-2035f

Figure 28: Situation of primary energy supply, 2010-2015

Figure 29: Domestic energy explotation from 2009 to 2015

Figure 30: Coal reserves by region, 2016f

Figure 31: Market segment of coal consumption, 2016f

Figure 32: Forecast for supply and demand coal from 2015 to 2030

Figure 33: Market segment of natural gas consumption

Figure 34: Rate of selling price of gas for electricity sector by market price, 2014-2015

Figure 35: Potential and characteristics of wind electricity in 3 regions and by wind speed

Figure 36: Total supply of electricity, 2010-2017e

Figure 37: Electricity production of Vietnam and some other countries, 2016

Figure 38: Proportion of electricity generation by supplier, 2016

Figure 39: Structure of electricity production by source of materials, 2012-Q3/2018

Figure 40: Import of electricity, 2010-2017

Figure 41: Import of electricity from China, 2010-2016e

Figure 42: Power loss, 2010-2017e

Figure 43: Rate of power losses in the supply chain, 2010-2016

Figure 44: Maximum load and electricity system availability *, 4/2015-10/2017

Figure 45: Peak load by time between two main seasons, 2016

Figure 46: Commercial electricity, 2012-9M/2017e

Figure 47: Electricity consumption per capita of Vietnam, 2000-2016

Figure 48: Electricity consumption structure, 2017

Figure 49: Elastic electricity factor/GDP, 2010-2017e

Figure 50: Electricity outage, 2012-2017e

Figure 51: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2015-10/2017

Figure 52: Average electricity price, July/2007-December /2017

Figure 53: Price of input material, January/2014-October/2017

Figure 54: VGCM situation, 2012-2017

Figure 55: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source

Figure 56: Average per capita consumption of coal and and CO?

Figure 57: Import of electrical wires and cables, 2011-2018e

Figure 58: Investment capital of power plants

Figure 59: Demand-supply of electricity, 2010-2030f

Figure 60: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016-2030f

Figure 61: Net revenue, 2015-2016

Figure 62: Profit indicator, 2015-2016

Figure 63: Financial cost, 2015-2016

Figure 64: Self-financing rate, 2015-2016

Figure 65: Total asset, 2015-2016

Figure 66: Average days of receivables, 2016

Figure 67: Profit indicators, 2016

Figure 68: Days in inventory, 2016

Figure 69: Solvency, 2015-2016

List of tables

Table 1: Electricity generation in Southeast Asia by energy sources, 1990-2040f

Table 2: Demand for primary energy in Southeast Asia, 1990-2040f

Table 3: Increase in coal price for power generation, 2010-2017

Table 4: Hydroelectricity potential in Vietnam

Table 5: Data on solar radiation in Vietnam

Table 6: Schedule for solar energy development in Vietnam to 2030 with a vision to 2050

Table 7: Wind electricity potential in the provinces of Planning for development of wind electricity, 2020

Table 8: Theoretical potential and technical potential of the tidal electric power

Table 9: Geothermal potential of the regions

Table 10: Compare the advantages and disadvantages of hydroelectricity and thermal electricity

Table 11: Length of transmission grid and total capacity of distribution, 2011-2016

Table 12: Rate of power losses of some countries, 2011-2014

Table 13: Results of reduction of power losses in 2017-Plan for 2018

Table 14: Commercial electricity according to the distribution companies (Million kWh), 2016-2018

Table 15: Electricity supply reliability criteria for 2017-2018

Table 16: Vietnam's getting electricity indicator, 2013-2017

Table 17: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium-sized hydroelectric plants in 2017

Table 18: Average electricity wholesale price of EVN for other electricity corporations in 2016

Table 19: Comparison of electricity industry structure before and after 2008

 

 

 

 

 

Southern Power Corporation - EVNSPC

Ho Chi Minh Power Company - EVNHCMC

Hanoi Power Company - EVNHANOI

Central Power Corporation - EVNCPC

Hai Phong Thermal Power Joint Stock Company

Quang Ninh Thermal Power Joint Stock Company

Pha Lai Thermal Power Joint Stock Company

BOT Phy My 3 Power Company Limited

Mekong Energy Company


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