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Report Title

Childrenswear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report

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Childrenswear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report


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Childrenswear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report

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Childrenswear Retailing in the UK - Verdict Sector Report



Executive Summary

The UK childrenswear market is set to grow by 3.2% in 2014. Parents have maintained a moderate level of volume growth with everyday items being necessary purchases, but continued price inflation, as a result of increasing sourcing costs, has held back their real buying power. Consequently, value growth in the childrenswear market has recovered to pre-recession levels, but volume growth has not.

Key Findings

Provides data and insight on market size, sales and growth rates for childrenswear, overall and at category level, helping to plan range development

Provides expenditure breakdown across the value, midmarket and premium sectors highlighting to you the areas which offer the most growth potential

Market issues are examined; demographic trends, polarisation and the online shopping journey, improving your awareness of challenges and opportunities

Childrenswear expenditure forecast to 2019 and analysis of volume growth and inflation, aiding future planning and strategising

Synopsis

Volume growth of 2.8% in 2014 will make childrenswear the strongest UK clothing sub-sector, with parents remaining reluctant to cut back and the frequent replacement cycle of clothing ensuring growth. Growth in infantswear will be the strongest, followed by girlswear, with girls becoming more fashionable, contributing to more frequent purchases.

The online market is expected to nearly double in the next five years, accounting for most of the growth in childrenswear spending over that period, with consumers looking overwhelmingly for convenience and to save time, as well as for lower prices and wide ranges.

Grocers are forecast to be the main winners in UK childrenswear in 2014, adding 0.5 percentage points to their share. Meanwhile, childrenswear specialists led by Mothercare will see further share erosion, losing to the grocers and clothing specialists, which will continue to improve their offer in terms of price, quality and fashionability.

Reasons To Buy

What share of spend do specialists hold and how is this changing? What went wrong for Kiddicare, and how should Mothercare win back lost share?

How much is spent on childrenswear online and how will this change in the next five years? Why do parents want to shop online for childrenswear?

Which segments of the market offer the best growth potential? How is the premium/luxury sector performing considering restricted disposable incomes?

Which retailers will gain the most market share in 2014, and who are expected to be the greatest share losers and why?

1 Outlook

1.1 Overview

1.2 Main Conclusions

1.2.1 Childrenswear spending growth to reach 2.8% in 2015

1.2.2 Deflation set to return, boosting volumes further

1.2.3 Fall in the birth rate hits younger childrenswear in the short term

1.2.4 Value players set to gain share but their advance will slow

1.2.5 Back to school market highly price competitive but quality to become more important

1.2.6 Online childrenswear market grows by 17.1% in 2014 to reach GBP682m

1.2.7 Online to account for four fifths of childrenswear growth in next five years

1.2.8 Demographic trends set to boost the tween clothing market

1.2.9 Mini-me trend given further impetus by social media

2 Recommendations

2.1 Overview

2.2 Strategic Opportunities

2.2.1 Focus online proposition on maximising customer convenience

2.2.2 Cater for more leisurely online shoppers as well

2.2.3 Make the most of the overlap between online and offline channels

2.2.4 Develop quality perceptions in back to school to sidestep price rivalry

2.2.5 Target the demand for second hand retailing

2.2.6 Restructure ranges to take advantage of demographic trends toward tweens

2.2.7 Build spend per head in lower age bands to counteract 2013 fall in birth rates

3 Market Size

3.1 Overview

3.2 Market Definition

3.3 Clothing Market Summary

3.4 Childrenswear in Context of the Clothing Market

3.5 Market Price Segmentation

3.6 Spend per Head

4 Market Forecast

4.1 Overview

4.2 Market Definition

4.3 Childrenswear Expenditure Trends

4.4 Market Segmentation

4.5 Subsector Performance

4.5.1 Girlswear

4.5.2 Boyswear

4.5.3 Infantswear

4.6 Spend per Head

4.7 Quarterly Expenditure Forecasts

4.7.1 2014

4.7.2 2015

4.7.3 2016/17

4.7.4 Deflation returns in Q1 2016

5 Channel Shares

5.1 Overview

5.2 Clothing Specialists and Grocers Gain Ground

5.3 Online and Offline

6 Market Shares

6.1 Overview

6.2 Childrenswear Market Shares

6.3 Winners and Losers

6.4 Key Operating Statistics

7 Sector Trends

7.1 Overview

7.2 Back to School

7.2.1 Top September findings

7.2.2 Top August findings

7.2.3 Top July findings

7.3 Online Growth to Add Nearly GBP100m to Market in 2014

7.4 Back to School Rivalry Strong on Price and Increasing on Quality

7.5 Cotton Prices Set to Help Sourcing Prices but Wages Rise

7.6 Tween Market set to Benefit from Population Trends

7.7 Second Hand Childrenswear Market Grows Online

7.8 Social Media add Greater Impetus to Mini-me Trend

7.9 New Market Entrants and Demographics put Remaining Specialists under Pressure

7.1 Drivers of Spend on Children's Footwear

8 Methodology

8.1 Methodology: Outlook

8.1.1 Market size

8.1.2 Market shares

8.1.3 Sales density calculation

8.2 Methodology: Market Size

8.2.1 Market size

8.2.2 Market shares

8.3 Methodology: Market Forecast

8.3.1 Market size

8.3.2 Market Forecast

8.4 Methodology: Channel Shares

8.5 Methodology: Market Shares

8.6 Methodology: Sector Trends

8.6.1 Market size

8.6.2 Market shares

8.7 Definitions

8.7.1 Abbreviations

8.7.2 Appendix: Market Forecast

9 Appendix

9.1 About Verdict Retail

9.2 Disclaimer

To know more information on Purchase by Section, please send a mail to sales@kenresearch.com

Figure 1: Sector shares of the clothing market (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 2: Childrenswear expenditure (GBPbn) and year-on-year change (%), 2005-15e

Figure 3: Childrenswear inflation/deflation, volume and value growth (%), 2005-15e

Figure 4: Childrenswear positioning map, 2014

Figure 5: Mothercare Value Essentials range, July 2014

Figure 6: River Island childrenswear edit, July 2014

Figure 7: Childrenswear expenditure breakdown (%), 2009 and 2014e

Figure 8: Tesco TV childrenswear advert emphasising added value features, 2014

Figure 9: Childrenswear spend per head (GBP), 2010-15e

Figure 10: Spend per head in childrenswear, girlswear, boyswear and infantswear (GBP), 2005 and 2015e

Figure 11: Childrenswear expenditure (GBPbn) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 12: Childrenswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 13: Childrenswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 14: Childrenswear expenditure breakdown (%), 2009, 2014e and 2019e

Figure 15: Girlswear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 16: Girlswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 17: Girlswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 18: Boyswear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 19: Boyswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 20: Boyswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 21: Infantswear expenditure (GBPm) and year-on-year change (%), 2010-20e

Figure 22: Infantswear sources of growth (%), 2010-20e

Figure 23: Infantswear expenditure growth (%), 2015e-20e

Figure 24: Births in Great Britain, numbers and y-o-y growth (%), 2003-13

Figure 25: Childrenswear spend per head (GBP), 2015e-20e

Figure 26: Spend per head on total childrenswear, girlswear, boyswear, infantswear (GBP), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 27: Childrenswear sources of growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 28: Childrenswear versus clothing & footwear year-on-year change (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Figure 29: Childrenswear channel shares (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 30: Childrenswear channel expenditure growth (%), 2020e on 2015e

Figure 31: Change in childrenswear channel share (percentage point), 2015-20e

Figure 32: Online and offline shares of childrenswear (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 33: Childrenswear top 15 - childrenswear market shares (%), 2010 and 2015e

Figure 34: Childrenswear top 15 - childrenswear winners and losers (percentage points), 2015e on 2014

Figure 35: Childrenswear retailers' UK space growth versus sales growth (%), 2015/16e

Figure 36: Clothing sales densities (GBP/sq ft), 2014/15 and 2015/16e

Figure 37: Online childrenswear expenditure (GBPm), 2009-14e

Figure 38: Socioeconomic profile of online childrenswear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 39: Penetration of online clothing shoppers for childrenswear by gender, age and socioeconomic group (%), 2014

Figure 40: Age profile of online childrenswear shoppers (%), 2014

Figure 41: Main drivers of childrenswear online spend (%), 2014

Figure 42: Delivery methods used by online childrenswear buyers (%), 2014

Figure 43: Browsing time before purchasing childrenswear online (%), 2014

Figure 44: Devices used when buying childrenswear online (%), 201

Figure 45: Online childrenswear expenditure (GBPm), 2014-19e

Figure 46: Aldi school uniform GBP4 offer, July 2014

Figure 47: Positioning map for average price in the back to school market vs convenience, 2014

Figure 48: Cotton price and UK clothing import prices, 2008 to 2014

Figure 49: Change in numbers of children by age group (%), 2014-19

Figure 50: River Island teen girlswear, September 2014

Figure 51: eBay childrenswear, September 2014

Figure 52: Mango mini-me childrenswear, May 2014

Figure 53: Alonso Mateo Facebook page, September 2014

Figure 54: Uniqlo childrenswear, September 2014

Figure 55: Lidl childrenswear, September 2014

Figure 56: Most important factors in the purchasing decision for children's footwear, 2014

Figure 57: Clarks emphasises fitting and product knowledge, 2014

Figure 58: Preferred channels for children's footwear, 2014

Figure 59: Russell & Bromley Kids and Kids Footlocker, Westfield Stratford, 2014

Figure 60: Successful implementation of standalone children's footwear stores, 2014

Figure 61: Market positioning of the most visited children's footwear retailers, 2014

Figure 62: Zara's fashion-led footwear offer for girls, 2014

Table 1: Childrenswear market definition, 2015

Table 2: Summary of clothing sectors, 2015e

Table 3: Childrenswear market value (GBPm) and growth drivers (%), 2005-15e

Table 4: Childrenswear sales breakdown and trends in context of clothing (GBPm), 2005-15e

Table 5: Childrenswear market definition, 2015

Table 6: Girlswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 7: Boyswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 8: Infantswear expenditure, inflation, volume and value and share of sector, 2015e-20e

Table 9: Childrenswear expenditure (GBPm) and growth (%), quarterly, 2013-17e

Table 10: Childrenswear channels of distribution expenditure (GBPm) and share (%), 2014, 2015e and 2020e

Table 11: Specialist and clothing specialist childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 12: Non-specialist childrenswear market shares (%), 2010-15e

Table 13: Childrenswear retailers' key UK operating statistics, 2014/15e and 2015/16e

Table 14: Price competitiveness of key back to school childrenswear retailers, August 2014

Table 15: Quality marks of back to school childrenswear retailers, August 2014

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Insight Report,Retail,Clothing & Footwear,Verdict Retail


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