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Vietnam Banking Comprehensive Report Q2/2018

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Vietnam Banking Comprehensive Report Q2/2018

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Vietnam Banking Comprehensive Report Q2/2018



Executive Summary

VIETNAM BANKING INDUSTRY

Banking industry activity in the first three months of 2018 has achieved remarkable results such as: mobilized capital growth more positively than the same period in 2017, mobilized growth has also grown x.xx% compared to the end of 2017 (3.31% higher than the same period of 2017). Meanwhile, credit increased x.xx% compared to the end of 2017 and was lower than the same period of 2017 growth of 4.37%. Medium- and long-term credit has shown signs of recovery in first months of 2018.

There are still a number of limitations that the banking industry must continue to improve in the coming years: adjust credit structure towards more focus on industry and agriculture; balance capital to prevent risks; enhance the development of payment services, especially non-cash payment and modern payment services; exploiting the potential of the market through the allocation of a reasonable business network, focus on individual customers. The problem of bad debt in the banking industry has existed for many years and needs to be treated thoroughly.

It is forecast that the banking industry will continue to operate smoothly and without major fluctuations in 2018. VIRAC noticed positive signs in total asset , deposit and credit growth. Many positive signals toward the policy has been launched to help reduce bad debt in 2018. On the other hand, the banking industry will find it difficult to achieve high profitability due to the process of changing its business model, overcoming bad debt and challenges from macroeconomic conditions as well as dealing with structural and capital adequacy risks.

Abbreviations

Report summary

1. Macroeconomic situation affecting the banking industry

1.1 International context

1.1.1 World economy overview

1.1.2 Current situation of world economy

1.2 Domestic context

1.2.1 Domestic economy overview

1.2.2 Current situation of domestic economy

1.3 Policies of ministries, departments and the Government

1.3.1 Objectives of macroeconomic policies in 2018

1.3.2 Policies of ministries, departments and the Government

1.3.3 Policies of the State Bank of Vietnam

2. Banking performance evaluation

2.1 Operations of world banking system

2.1.1 Outstanding policies of central banks over the world and in the region

2.1.2 Exchange rate movement of some currencies over the world

2.1.3 Interbank interest rate movement of some countries

2.2 Some basic indicators of Vietnam banking industry

2.2.1 Mobilization and loans

2.2.2 Interest rate and exchange rate

2.2.3 Balance of Payment

2.2.4 Total liquidity

2.3 Operations of the State Bank of Vietnam

2.3.1 Interest rate

2.3.2 Exchange rate

2.3.3 OMO market

2.3.4 Required reserve

2.4 Operations of commercial bank system in Vietnam

2.4.1 Banking activity overview

2.4.2 Banking network development and payment system of banks

2.4.3 Performance evaluation of some typical banks

2.4.4 Outlook and forecast

List of Figures and Tables

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Economic growth and commodity prices, 2010-2018e

Figure 2: Global economic growth, 2011-1/2018

Figure 3: Economic growth in ASEAN, 2013-2018F

Figure 4: GDP of ASEAN countries, 1970-2016

Figure 5: Global inflation rate and in some economic regions, 2012-10M/2016e

Figure 6: Inflation rate in some countries and in the region, 2014-10M/2016e

Figure 7: World commodity prices, 2013-2017

Figure 8: Share of Vietnam's GDP by economic sector, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 9: Retail sales of consumer goods and services, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 10: Growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods and services, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 11: Overall consumer price index and commodity groups in the CPI basket, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 12: Price movement of some basic commodities, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 13: Some macroeconomic indicators of Vietnam, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 14: Some macroeconomic indicators, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 15: FDI and commodity import-export value, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 16: FDI and commodity import-export growth, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 17: Interest rate movement according to Fed Funds Rate, 2008-2017

Figure 18: Interest rate of ECB, 2008-2017

Figure 19: Interest rate of BOJ, 2008-2017

Figure 20: Interest rate of PBOC, 2008-2017

Figure 21: USD Index, 2014-2017

Figure 22: Interest rate movement of the interbank market in the world, 2014-2017

Figure 23: Total liquidity, capital mobilization and credit to the economy, 2014-3/2018

Figure 24: Loan to deposit ratio (LDR), 8/2016-3/2018

Figure 25: Loan to deposit ratio, 2/2018

Figure 26: Average interbank VND/USD exchange rate, 2016-3/2018

Figure 27: Average mobilizing and lending rates, 2012-2017e

Figure 28: Marginal interest income ratio, 2012-2017e

Figure 29: Balance of International Payment, 2011-2017e

Figure 30: Total liquidity, 2014-3/2018

Figure 31: Interest rate of SBV, 2010-3/2018

Figure 32: Exchange rate movement at SBV, 2016-3/2018

Figure 33: Forward interest rate of mortgages and bonds auction on OMO market, 2014-2017

Figure 34: Required reserve ratio classified by types of credit institution and currency

Figure 35: Credit growth in 3 months, 2013-2018e

Figure 36: Structure of Consumer Loans, 2017

Figure 37: Interbank interest rate, 2012-3/2018

Figure 38: Assets, ROAA and ROAE of commercial bank system, 2014-2017

Figure 39: Some indicators of the whole banking system by credit institutions, 2017

Figure 40: Bad debt ratio movement, 2012-2017e

Figure 41: Provision for credit losses, 2013-2017e

Figure 42: Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio, 2012-2017e

Figure 43: Equity capital of 3 state-owned commercial banks according to Basel II, 2018-2020

Figure 44: Dealing room structure by region, 2016

Figure 45: Access ability to dealing rooms, 2016

Figure 46: Development of payment equipment, 2014-Q1/2018

Figure 47: Development of payment system, 2014-Q1/2018

Figure 48: Non-cash payments, 2014-Q1/2018

Figure 49: Total assets, 2016-2017

Figure 50: Mobilization and loans, 2016-2017

Figure 51: Profits from forex trading, 2016-2017

Figure 52: Profit after tax, 2016-2017

Figure 53: Net interest income, 2016-2017

Figure 54: Profits from service business, 2016-2017

Figure 55: Profits from investment and stock trading activities, 2016-2017

Figure 56: Profit ratio, 2016-2017

Figure 57: Bad debt ratio, 2016-2017

Figure 58: Provision ratio for risks, 2016-2017

Figure 59: NIM coefficient, 2016-2017

Figure 60: Debt coefficient, 2016-2017

Figure 61: Self-financing ratio, 2016-2017

List of tables

Table 1: Basic commodity prices in the world, 2016-2018f

Table 2: Economic growth, 2014-3M/2018

Table 3: Fed Funds Rate, 2008-2017

Table 4: Interest rate of ECB, 2008-2017

Table 5: Interest rate of BOJ, 2008-2017

Table 6: Interest rate of PBOC, 2008-2017

Table 7: Exchange rates of some currencies in the world, 2016-2017

Table 8: Interbank interest rate in some countries, 2014-2017

Table 9: Some indicators of banking industry

Table 10:Credit to the economy, 2014-3/2018

Table 11: Structure of credit outstanding balance, 2014-3/2018 (%)

Table 12: Balance of International Payment, 2014-2017

Table 13: Some interest rate policies announced by the SBV, 2014-2017

Table 14: Open market operations and bonds auction of SBV, 2014-2017

Table 15: Required reserve ratio

Table 16: Some indicators of banking system, 2014-2017

Table 17: Network structure by type of bank, 2016

 

 

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List of Figures:

Figure 1: Economic growth and commodity prices, 2010-2018e

Figure 2: Global economic growth, 2011-1/2018

Figure 3: Economic growth in ASEAN, 2013-2018F

Figure 4: GDP of ASEAN countries, 1970-2016

Figure 5: Global inflation rate and in some economic regions, 2012-10M/2016e

Figure 6: Inflation rate in some countries and in the region, 2014-10M/2016e

Figure 7: World commodity prices, 2013-2017

Figure 8: Share of Vietnam's GDP by economic sector, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 9: Retail sales of consumer goods and services, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 10: Growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods and services, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 11: Overall consumer price index and commodity groups in the CPI basket, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 12: Price movement of some basic commodities, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 13: Some macroeconomic indicators of Vietnam, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 14: Some macroeconomic indicators, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 15: FDI and commodity import-export value, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 16: FDI and commodity import-export growth, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 17: Interest rate movement according to Fed Funds Rate, 2008-2017

Figure 18: Interest rate of ECB, 2008-2017

Figure 19: Interest rate of BOJ, 2008-2017

Figure 20: Interest rate of PBOC, 2008-2017

Figure 21: USD Index, 2014-2017

Figure 22: Interest rate movement of the interbank market in the world, 2014-2017

Figure 23: Total liquidity, capital mobilization and credit to the economy, 2014-3/2018

Figure 24: Loan to deposit ratio (LDR), 8/2016-3/2018

Figure 25: Loan to deposit ratio, 2/2018

Figure 26: Average interbank VND/USD exchange rate, 2016-3/2018

Figure 27: Average mobilizing and lending rates, 2012-2017e

Figure 28: Marginal interest income ratio, 2012-2017e

Figure 29: Balance of International Payment, 2011-2017e

Figure 30: Total liquidity, 2014-3/2018

Figure 31: Interest rate of SBV, 2010-3/2018

Figure 32: Exchange rate movement at SBV, 2016-3/2018

Figure 33: Forward interest rate of mortgages and bonds auction on OMO market, 2014-2017

Figure 34: Required reserve ratio classified by types of credit institution and currency

Figure 35: Credit growth in 3 months, 2013-2018e

Figure 36: Structure of Consumer Loans, 2017

Figure 37: Interbank interest rate, 2012-3/2018

Figure 38: Assets, ROAA and ROAE of commercial bank system, 2014-2017

Figure 39: Some indicators of the whole banking system by credit institutions, 2017

Figure 40: Bad debt ratio movement, 2012-2017e

Figure 41: Provision for credit losses, 2013-2017e

Figure 42: Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio, 2012-2017e

Figure 43: Equity capital of 3 state-owned commercial banks according to Basel II, 2018-2020

Figure 44: Dealing room structure by region, 2016

Figure 45: Access ability to dealing rooms, 2016

Figure 46: Development of payment equipment, 2014-Q1/2018

Figure 47: Development of payment system, 2014-Q1/2018

Figure 48: Non-cash payments, 2014-Q1/2018

Figure 49: Total assets, 2016-2017

Figure 50: Mobilization and loans, 2016-2017

Figure 51: Profits from forex trading, 2016-2017

Figure 52: Profit after tax, 2016-2017

Figure 53: Net interest income, 2016-2017

Figure 54: Profits from service business, 2016-2017

Figure 55: Profits from investment and stock trading activities, 2016-2017

Figure 56: Profit ratio, 2016-2017

Figure 57: Bad debt ratio, 2016-2017

Figure 58: Provision ratio for risks, 2016-2017

Figure 59: NIM coefficient, 2016-2017

Figure 60: Debt coefficient, 2016-2017

Figure 61: Self-financing ratio, 2016-2017

List of tables

Table 1: Basic commodity prices in the world, 2016-2018f

Table 2: Economic growth, 2014-3M/2018

Table 3: Fed Funds Rate, 2008-2017

Table 4: Interest rate of ECB, 2008-2017

Table 5: Interest rate of BOJ, 2008-2017

Table 6: Interest rate of PBOC, 2008-2017

Table 7: Exchange rates of some currencies in the world, 2016-2017

Table 8: Interbank interest rate in some countries, 2014-2017

Table 9: Some indicators of banking industry

Table 10:Credit to the economy, 2014-3/2018

Table 11: Structure of credit outstanding balance, 2014-3/2018 (%)

Table 12: Balance of International Payment, 2014-2017

Table 13: Some interest rate policies announced by the SBV, 2014-2017

Table 14: Open market operations and bonds auction of SBV, 2014-2017

Table 15: Required reserve ratio

Table 16: Some indicators of banking system, 2014-2017

Table 17: Network structure by type of bank, 2016

 

 

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank)

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank)

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV)

TienPhongBank (TPBank)

Asia Commercial Bank (ACB)

Vietnam Maritime Joint - Stock Commercial Bank (MSB)

Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VIB)

The Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Techcombank)


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