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Vietnam Aviation Comprhensive Report Q2/2018

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Vietnam Aviation Comprhensive Report Q2/2018



Executive Summary

VIETNAM AVIATION INDUSTRY

The demand for passenger and cargo transportation of aviation in 2016 flourished all over the world. Passenger transport revenue per kilometer (RPKs) increased by 7.1% in 2016. Despite a slight decline from 7.4% due to a fall in oil prices in 2015. This shows that the aviation industry is operating well and goes far beyond the 10-year average growth rate of 5.5%. The increasing demand resulted from lower ticket prices in 2016.

While the middle class in Europe and North America remained unchanged, this class in the Asia-Pacific region rose sharply. This was the reason for the rapid development of this region while leading the growth rate of passenger and cargo transport by air with 33.6% over the same period. The airline's development center continued to shift towards East Asia, taking second place in 2016. Again, China's domestic passenger market had the largest growth in passenger numbers, with more than 37 million in 2016 over the previous year. This increase was more than the two fastest growing markets followed which are the US domestic and Indian domestic combined.

The total Vietnam aviation industry (including international traffic) has increased by 2.6 times in terms of scale, from 23.7 million passengers in 2011 to 61.2 million in 2017. Vietnam aviation transport market involved in the operation of 63 foreign airlines from 25 countries/territories operating international flights to Vietnam. Foreign airlines and 3 Vietnam Airlines enterprises-Vietnam Airlines, Jetstar Pacific Airlines and VietJet are exploiting 105 international routes.

According to IATA, Vietnam is one of the 5 airway markets with the largest increase in passenger volume (after China, US, India, Indonesia), with the average growth rate in the period 2011-2015e was highest in the top 10 leading countries with 32.65%. Accordingly, in the first three months of 2018, the total number of flights operated by four airlines branches was xx,xxx and the total number of flights departing on time was xx,xxx. The remarkable thing was that Vietjet increased strongly the number of flights (27%) compared to the same period, but the rate of punctuality and cancellation of flights were increased sharply over the same period.

Abbreviations

Report summary

1. Business environment

1.1 Macroeconomic situation

1.2 Legal framework

1.3 Trade agreements

2. World aviation industry

2.1 Development history of the industry

2.2 Current situation of industry development

2.3 Top largest airlines in the world

2.4 Top countries having typical airlines in the world

3. Vietnam aviation industry

3.1 Development history of the industry

3.2 Value chain of aviation industry

3.3 Industry scale

3.4 Current situation of aviation industry in Vietnam

4. Risks, driving forces and challenges

4.1 Industry risks

4.2 Driving forces

4.3 Challenges

4.4 5-forces analysis

5. Planning and forecast

5.1 Industry planning

5.2 Forecast

6. Enterprise analysis

6.1 Enterprise introduction

6.2 Enterprise analysis

7. Appendix of financial statements

List of figures and tables

List of figures

Figure 1: GDP growth by quarter, 2015-Q1/2018

Figure 2: Transportation and warehousing's contribution to GDP, 2013-3M/2018e

Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rate, 2013-3/2018

Figure 4: Disposable income and household expenditure, 2010-2017e

Figure 5: World crude oil prices, 2011-3/2018

Figure 6: Commodities import-export, 2015-Q1/2018

Figure 7: Tourist arrivals to Vietnam, 2010-2017e

Figure 8: RPK, FTK growth rate, 2012-2016

Figure 9: Global air travel passengers, 2012-2016

Figure 10: Jet fuel prices at major currencies, 2015-11/2017

Figure 11: Passenger and cargo transport growth by region, 2016

Figure 12: Top flight routes with strong passenger growth (direct flight), 2016

Figure 13: Passenger load factor, 2012-2016

Figure 14: Travel expenses and commercial air cargo values, 2012-2016

Figure 15: Connected airports and actual transport freight, 2012-2016

Figure 16: Number of air travel passengers in the U.S, 2010-2016

Figure 17: Number of air travel passengers in China, 2010-2016

Figure 18: Number of aircraft required in China for the next 20 years, 2016

Figure 19: Number of air travel passengers in India, 2010-2016

Figure 20: Number of air travel passengers in Japan, 2010-2016

Figure 21: Value chain of aviation industry

Figure 22: Capital and fixed assets in the airline passenger transport, 2010-2016

Figure 23: Aviation revenue, 2010-2016

Figure 24: Passenger transport proportion, 2012-3M/2018

Figure 25: Cargo transport proportion, 2012-3M/2018

Figure 26: Number of aircraft in Vietnam, 2011-4/2018

Figure 27: Aircraft structure by airlines, 4/2018

Figure 28: Passenger traffic growth over the years, 2010-2017e

Figure 29: Domestic market share, 2011-2017

Figure 30: Number of flight operations, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 31: Share of flight operations by airlines, 3M/2018

Figure 32: Sales structure by airline group, 2010-2017f

Figure 33: Revenue structure by sales channel, 2010-2017f

Figure 34: On-time take off rate, 3M/2018

Figure 35: Cause group of unpuntuality, 3M/2018

Figure 36: Cause group of cancellations, 3M/2018

Figure 37: Structure of unpunctual take off of each airline by cause, 3M/2018

Figure 38: Cancellation structure by cause of each airline, 3M/2018

Figure 39: Jet Feul prices, 2013-2017

Figure 40: Population pyramid, 2016

Figure 41: Percentage of people using aviation services, 2016

Figure 42: Air travel passenger growth forecast, 2035

Figure 43: Air travel passenger growth forecast, 2020f

Figure 44: Shareholder structure of Vietnam Airlines, 2016

Figure 45: Growth in passenger volume of VietJet, 2013-2019e

Figure 46: Revenue structure of VJC, 2017

Figure 47: Net revenue of goods sold and services provided, 2015-2017

Figure 48: Revenue structure of Vietnam Airlines, 2017

Figure 49: Gross profit margin and cost of goods sold, 2015-2017

Figure 50: Expenses, 2015-2017

Figure 51: Asset structure, 2015-2017

Figure 52: Profit after tax, 2015-2017

Figure 53: Profit ratio, 2015-2017

List of tables

Table 1: Top 10 passenger transport airlines (RPK), 2016

Table 2: Top 10 cargo transport airlines (FTK), 2016

Table 3: World aircraft accidents, 2016

Table 4: Top 10 world's largest airlines, 9/2017

Table 5: Top largest aviation passenger markets, 2016

Table 6: HVN fleet, 2017

Table 7: VietJet Air fleet, 2017

Table 8: Comparison between common aircrafts in Vietnam

Table 9: Competitiveness of major airlines in Vietnam

Table 10: Top air routes having the highest growth rate in number of passengers, 2011-2015e

Table 11: Average seat occupancy rate, 2010-2017

Table 12: Visa exemption policy of Vietnam, 2017

Table 13: Growth rate

Table 14: Transport volume of airlines in Vietnam

Table 15: International routes having the largest passenger volume, 2035

 

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List of figures

Figure 1: GDP growth by quarter, 2015-Q1/2018

Figure 2: Transportation and warehousing's contribution to GDP, 2013-3M/2018e

Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rate, 2013-3/2018

Figure 4: Disposable income and household expenditure, 2010-2017e

Figure 5: World crude oil prices, 2011-3/2018

Figure 6: Commodities import-export, 2015-Q1/2018

Figure 7: Tourist arrivals to Vietnam, 2010-2017e

Figure 8: RPK, FTK growth rate, 2012-2016

Figure 9: Global air travel passengers, 2012-2016

Figure 10: Jet fuel prices at major currencies, 2015-11/2017

Figure 11: Passenger and cargo transport growth by region, 2016

Figure 12: Top flight routes with strong passenger growth (direct flight), 2016

Figure 13: Passenger load factor, 2012-2016

Figure 14: Travel expenses and commercial air cargo values, 2012-2016

Figure 15: Connected airports and actual transport freight, 2012-2016

Figure 16: Number of air travel passengers in the U.S, 2010-2016

Figure 17: Number of air travel passengers in China, 2010-2016

Figure 18: Number of aircraft required in China for the next 20 years, 2016

Figure 19: Number of air travel passengers in India, 2010-2016

Figure 20: Number of air travel passengers in Japan, 2010-2016

Figure 21: Value chain of aviation industry

Figure 22: Capital and fixed assets in the airline passenger transport, 2010-2016

Figure 23: Aviation revenue, 2010-2016

Figure 24: Passenger transport proportion, 2012-3M/2018

Figure 25: Cargo transport proportion, 2012-3M/2018

Figure 26: Number of aircraft in Vietnam, 2011-4/2018

Figure 27: Aircraft structure by airlines, 4/2018

Figure 28: Passenger traffic growth over the years, 2010-2017e

Figure 29: Domestic market share, 2011-2017

Figure 30: Number of flight operations, 2014-3M/2018

Figure 31: Share of flight operations by airlines, 3M/2018

Figure 32: Sales structure by airline group, 2010-2017f

Figure 33: Revenue structure by sales channel, 2010-2017f

Figure 34: On-time take off rate, 3M/2018

Figure 35: Cause group of unpuntuality, 3M/2018

Figure 36: Cause group of cancellations, 3M/2018

Figure 37: Structure of unpunctual take off of each airline by cause, 3M/2018

Figure 38: Cancellation structure by cause of each airline, 3M/2018

Figure 39: Jet Feul prices, 2013-2017

Figure 40: Population pyramid, 2016

Figure 41: Percentage of people using aviation services, 2016

Figure 42: Air travel passenger growth forecast, 2035

Figure 43: Air travel passenger growth forecast, 2020f

Figure 44: Shareholder structure of Vietnam Airlines, 2016

Figure 45: Growth in passenger volume of VietJet, 2013-2019e

Figure 46: Revenue structure of VJC, 2017

Figure 47: Net revenue of goods sold and services provided, 2015-2017

Figure 48: Revenue structure of Vietnam Airlines, 2017

Figure 49: Gross profit margin and cost of goods sold, 2015-2017

Figure 50: Expenses, 2015-2017

Figure 51: Asset structure, 2015-2017

Figure 52: Profit after tax, 2015-2017

Figure 53: Profit ratio, 2015-2017

List of tables

Table 1: Top 10 passenger transport airlines (RPK), 2016

Table 2: Top 10 cargo transport airlines (FTK), 2016

Table 3: World aircraft accidents, 2016

Table 4: Top 10 world's largest airlines, 9/2017

Table 5: Top largest aviation passenger markets, 2016

Table 6: HVN fleet, 2017

Table 7: VietJet Air fleet, 2017

Table 8: Comparison between common aircrafts in Vietnam

Table 9: Competitiveness of major airlines in Vietnam

Table 10: Top air routes having the highest growth rate in number of passengers, 2011-2015e

Table 11: Average seat occupancy rate, 2010-2017

Table 12: Visa exemption policy of Vietnam, 2017

Table 13: Growth rate

Table 14: Transport volume of airlines in Vietnam

Table 15: International routes having the largest passenger volume, 2035

 

Airports Corporation of Vietnam - JSC

VietJet Aviation Joint Stock Company

Jetstar Pacific Airlines Aviation Joint Stock Company

Vietnam Air Services Company (VASCO)


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